Ian Dudgeon is a Presidential Associate at the Australian Institute of International Affairs. His paper ‘Afghanistan—transition to transformation‘ looks at the future of Afghanistan as the ADF mission there winds down. ‘Transition’ (2001–2014) is the primarily UN-led period designed to rebuild the basic national institutions and infrastructure necessary to re-establish Afghanistan as a functional state. ‘Transformation’ (2015–2024) is the ensuing Afghan-led and owned decade, during which the Afghans will be responsible for further developing the outcomes of transition.