In the week that Beijing issued an invitation to Australia’s military to take part in the first joint exercises on Chinese soil, members of the AIIA NSW told a panel of government appointed experts they did not see the world’s most populous country as an immediate threat, but were uncertain about the longer-term future.

A group of 16 members of AIIA were invited to give their recommendations for the content of the planned 2015 White Paper in one of the first public consultations to be conducted following the Ministry of Defence announcement of participation by informed citizens in the process.

Details of this have been published in a 50-page Defence Issues Paper that is available online at the Defence departments website.  The government is seeking the community’s view on the following key questions:

• What are the main threats to, and opportunities for, Australia’s security?

• Are Defence’s policy settings current and accurate?

• What defence capabilities do we need now, and in the future?

• How can we enhance international engagement on defence and security issues?

• What should the relationship be between Defence and defence industry to support Defence’s mission?

• How should Defence invest in its people, and how should it continue to enhance its culture?

The AIIA NSW meeting was conducted as a round table over two hours one evening, with three members of the Expert Panel appointed by the government leading the discussions. They were Rear Admiral James Goldrick, who retired from the Navy in 2012; Rory Medcalf, director of the international security program at the Lowy Institute, and Dr Stephen Fruling, of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University.

Colin Chapman listed a number of issues he suggested should be addressed in the White Paper – the need for an enhanced intelligence capability with the prospect of spreading terrorism; a stronger focus on cyber-threats, including those faced by Australian business; stress testing of the US alliance to evaluate its reliability; convergence of defence strategy with New Zealand, Indonesia and other countries in South East Asia; rational procurement policies with the emphasis on appropriate quality rather than job creation; and a significant improvement in analysis of China and its medium term future.

The meeting was held under Chatham House rules, but covered numerous questions posed by the panel.  There appeared to be consensus that China did not pose an immediate threat, though there was some discussion of the prospects of greater confrontation between China and the United States.  One AIIA member said there should be a real attempt to define what the US alliance actually meant, and to limit Australian forces involvement in wars that don’t pose a threat to us. There was disagreement on whether or not Australia should go for higher population growth, but a favorable response to the idea of greater economic integration with China.

Those wishing to send individual submissions may do so using the online submission form on the Defence Department’s website: www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper.