Poor geographic conditions, insufficient preparation and the unsettled sovereignty mean that a nuclear disaster in Taiwan would seriously impact on the region.

The three nuclear power plants adjacent to Taipei, which now accommodates a population of seven million people, provide a perilous environment for a nuclear disaster. Since the Republic of China (ROC) regime’s takeover of Taiwan from Japan in 1945, Taipei has become the very centre of politics, education and economics. In order to satisfy rising energy demands, two nuclear power plants have been built and the construction of a third one is now almost complete. This means that soon six nuclear reactors will be in operation no further than 25 to 37km from the centre of Taipei. According to the lessons of Chernobyl and Fukushima, evacuating the population within a 30km radius of a nuclear power plant often becomes necessary in the event of a nuclear disaster. As a result, in the case of Taipei this would require evacuation on an unprecedentedscale as the whole or at least part of its population of seven million would be need to be moved quickly if there was leakage from one of the adjacent power plants.

The Geographic Conditions

As a basin, Taipei is surrounded by a range of hills and plateaus which impede the traffic lines between Taipei and other areas. Inside the basin the subway network is limited, with only a few rail systems which could effectively be used to evacuate Taipei’s population, while highway systems already struggle to accommodate normal rush hour traffic. Furthermore, due to the location of Taiwan on the ‘Ring of Fire’, the land transport systems could easily be disrupted by a major earthquake. In terms of sea transport, the Port of Taipei and the Keelung Port would not provide a considerable alternative, as they are mainly designed for freight shipping and are located extremely close to the nuclear power plants. Thus, in the case ofradioactive contamination, Taipei’s geographic conditions would render the evacuation of millions of people extremely difficult.

Insufficient Preparations

The ROC regime’s insufficient contingency preparations make the situation even more dangerous. Although annual emergency exercises have been carried out in the nuclear power plants and adjacent areas, the evacuation radius has been limited to a mere 8-10kms from the site. In addition Taiwan‘s capacity to respond to a nuclear disaster is limited and mainly consists of three CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radioactive and Nuclear) army groups. In other words, irrespective of whether or not evacuation plans are available, these plans have never fully been tested in practice. And the same goes for any follow-up measures, such as the establishment of ‘hot zones’ to examine and clean evacuees, as well as the provision of accommodation and special medical treatment according to the worst scenario.

Issues Caused by Disputed Sovereignty

While a large-scale evacuation of Taipei’s population is likely to exceed the ROC regime’s capacity, thus making external aid crucial, delivering it would be complicated due to Taiwan’s disputed sovereignty. Even though the ROC regime lost its control over China to its Communist counterpart, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), in 1949, it has continuously maintained its control over Taiwan. Since then both the ROC and the PRC have claimed sovereignty over Taiwan. The San Francisco Treaty of 1951 did not settle the issue as it only states that Japan gave up its claims but otherwise remains silent on the question of sovereignty. Given its growing power and international status, China’s sovereign claim over Taiwan would likely influence the provision of international aid, and if it were to annex the island in the wake of a nuclear disaster, this would have serious consequences for regional geopolitics. However apart from China, the US, Japan and Russia would all have the capacity, as well as a motive for providing aid in case of a nuclear catastrophe in Taiwan.

According to international conventions and custom a disaster-affected state has the right and responsibility to decide whether to receive foreign aid, to request aid from other countries and to coordinate the delivery and provision of aid. Despite the controversial sovereignty, its substantial governance endows the ROC regime with the right to carry out thesefunctions and it has demonstrated its willingness and capability to do so in the wake of Typhoon Morakot in 2009. If the ROC regime was able to maintain its current role, other powers may seek to take advantage of the emergency situation to expand their influence over Taiwan. Both China, as well as the US, and potentially Japan would have leverage over the ROC regime through the provision of Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR). If on the other hand the ROC regime were to lose its capability to function in the event of a nuclear emergency, those same powers may opt to take unilateral action and/or propose an international joint operation.

Predicting Possible Outcomes

While the unprecedented nature of this scenario makes it hard to predict the outcome with any certainty, there are generally three possibilities: Firstly, China may achieve dominance over the island, leading to the Chinese annexation of Taiwan. Serving as a convenient base for forward deployment, this would allow China’s military and paramilitary forces to increase strategic pressure on countries such as Japan and the Philippines, as well as strengthen the Chinese position in the South China Sea.

Alternatively China and other powers may share the nuclear HADR mission, in which case Taiwan could become a new platform for power politics in East Asia. Finally China could find itself marginalised in the provision of disaster relief. As a result Taiwan might be able to regain some of its de facto independence which was lost in the close cross-Strait ties since 2008. However this last outcome would prove a major political disaster for China in its rise to power.

The international impact of a nuclear catastrophe in Taiwan may cease in the future if the issue of Taiwan’s sovereignty can be resolved through a cross-Strait political or peace agreement between Beijing and Taipei. However for as long as the sovereignty of Taiwan remains uncertain, a nuclear disaster is likely to significantly affect the international community.

Shang-su Wu is a research fellow in the Military Studies Programme of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University. He previously taught at the National Defence University in Taiwan and worked in the Legislative Yuan. He can be reached at issswu@ntu.edu.sg.