At Glover cottages on Tuesday 13 February, Andrew Greene, defence and national security correspondent of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, gave a talk outlining the readiness and capability of the Australian defence establishment and its armed services in 2018. Mr Greene discussed the strategic threats and risks perceived within the defence community. He drew attention to a new reality which Australia faces in 2018, the rapid rise of China and its growing assertiveness within the Asia–Pacific region. The possibility of conflict, while still distant, must be actively considered.

Mr Greene highlighted the outdatedness of the 2017 foreign policy white paper and the 2016 defence white paper which advocated reliance on a “rules based” international order. He pointed out that these “rules” do little to reflect our current reality and were themselves written by liberal democracies without China’s endorsement. He also touched on the strategic implications of the Darwin port leasing to a Chinese company in 2016 and of the a mounting focus of government on alleged foreign interference in Australian politics and student life. He suggested that the hysteria associated with both these unfolding issues highlighted not the threat of China itself but the growing importance of China to the Australian economy and strategic realities.

Mr Greene then discussed various aspects of Australia’s defence capabilities, placing particular emphasis on submarine technology. Australia’s recent purchase of French designed submarines had prompted concerns about cost blow-outs and doubts about the plausibility of domestic construction. He also pointed out that Australia’s purchase of 72 F-35 Joint Strike fighters from the US to replace its ageing fleet of Hornets is one of the most expensive gambles we have taken in defence history. Will Australia’s splurge on new aircraft and submarines prove effective in an Asia–Pacific context? or will it prove to be risky waste of money? Only time will tell.

Australia has had three successive generations without the threat of existential conflict. This, Mr Greene argues, has fostered a sense of passivity in the minds of politicians and strategic thinkers. With the rise of an assertive China and the growing threat of Islamic fighters in South East Asia, Australia has been forced to reassess the likelihood of another three generations without existential conflict. Mr Greene also discussed the consistent contempt of Australia’s defence establishment for the media. By choosing to remain insular and secretive, Australia’s defence force has stymied debate and discussion, something which will soon be essential in an increasingly uncertain world.

Christopher Khatouki

AIIA NSW Intern